Question: Since a Democrat, a Republican and an Independent were elected to the Northumberland County Board of Commissioners, which of these gentlemen will be the "minority" commissioner?
Strictly speaking - in terms of party affiliation, there will be no majority commissioners or a minority commissioner. Indeed, any of the commissioners could find himself in the minority at any time, depending on how the board aligns on particular issues.
But in a more literal sense, all three - Republican Rick Shoch, Democrat Vinny Clausi and Independent Stephen Bridy - are minority commissioners because, as impressive as their election victories were, none of them was supported by more than 50 percent of the voters. Shoch was the choice of 45 percent of the voters, Clausi 42 and Bridy 33. It's worth reminding them of that fact once in a while (just to keep them humble). It was a low-turnout election; only 32 percent of the registered voters bothering to go to the polls.
Obviously, each voter had his or her own reasons for how their votes were cast. Though individual decisions were based on a careful investigation of the issues and candidates' priorities, political or self-serving considerations or just plain pettiness, the collective results and the tenor of the campaign gives any pundit ample latitude for a post-
election assessment of why Shoch, Clausi
and Bridy got the laurels and why incumbents Frank Sawicki and Merle Phillips got the hook.
Exceeding expectations
A week ago, most people who were following the election expected Shoch to be in a close race for the third-place spot on the board of commissioners. Yet he finished first. Why did Shoch do so well?
- Shoch conveyed competence and showed professionalism throughout the primary and general election campaigns. He did his homework with what remains of the Republican base, amassing an impressive list of endorsements. At the same time, he was effective in reaching out to Democrats and independents.
- Shoch was a fresh face in a campaign where the performance of the three incumbent commissioners was the overriding issue. He benefited from the fact that he never held elective office.
- Shoch, perceived as an effective counterbalance to Clausi, looked attractive to voters who are card-carrying members of the "let cooler heads prevail" society.
Shoch's first-place finish will certainly enhance any claim he has to become board chairman.
A cautionary note: Shoch's leadership skills will be tested as he works calmly and effectively to forge alliances to influence not only county policies but the tone of county government.
Second, not first
No one ever doubted that Clausi would be elected to a second term. Although he didn't finish first in the voting (as most expected), he was not far behind. Why was Clausi's re-election inevitable?
- Ever since he began running for office, Clausi established himself as the "taxpayers' friend." His record as a commissioner showed he earned that label.
- Clausi is not a typical politician. He says what he thinks, makes decisions quickly and doesn't really care what colleagues or opponents think. Voters like his chutzpah.
- Although Clausi was not board chairman the past four years, he demonstrated leadership and has been the most vocal point man on county reform issues.
Clausi's experience and his fresh mandate from the voters should make him the most influential figure in county government.
A cautionary note: Incumbency has a way of quickly turning yesterday's "new kid" into an "establishment politician." In addition, Clausi's "go it alone" approach and pledge not to seek re-election in 2015, could render him ineffective if Shoch and Bridy end up forging a working majority.
Doing the 'impossible'
When he announced his candidacy in August, Bridy was viewed as a spoiler whose candidacy would siphon votes from other candidates. It was "impossible" that he could ever win, the naysayers said.
In fairness to the naysayers, their opinion was based on common sense and a clear grasp of the mechanics of winning elections. In Pennsylvania, independents occasionally get elected to school boards or municipal office, but successful independent candidates are almost as rare as bikinis at the North Pole. Why was Bridy able to make political history?
- Many voters took a look at the field of candidates and found all of them lacking, in one way or another. Bridy's candidacy was an effective way for voters to send a message.
- People love an underdog. Bridy's ability to fashion a serious campaign from scratch and fight for each possible vote struck a nerve with the electorate who all too often feel the choice is cut and dried.
- Bridy didn't just pay lip service to the county's need for more jobs. He argued that economic development is a major responsibility of the board of commissioners and pledged to devote time each day to contacting businesses throughout the nation.
Bridy scored the most impressive victory of the day because his campaign was truly a grass roots movement.
A cautionary note: Difficult as it is to win as an independent, it's even more difficult to govern effectively as one. Bridy will not be able to do anything on his own. He needs at least one other commissioner to vote with him on any initiative he proposes.
Once too often
Although Sawicki has won respect as a hard-working leader who has the best interests of the county at heart, he came 300 votes short of re-election. Why did voters reject Sawicki this time?
- The days of long-time county commissioners are probably over, and voters came to the conclusion Sawicki has been around long enough. This was actually Sawicki's fourth campaign for commissioner. In addition to winning in 2003 and 2007, he ran unsuccessfully in the 1999 primary. With each re-election campaign, each incumbent runs the risk of having voters say, "Enough is enough."
- The "errant phone message" relating to the proposed sale of the Sunbury Elks to the county diminished Sawicki's stature as a public official. Sawicki thought he was talking to an Elks official but apparently dialed the wrong number. Clausi's release of the recording put Sawicki on the defensive.
- Although Sawicki was board chairman, Clausi was increasingly seen as the real power in county government. Since Sawicki and Clausi never became political allies, Clausi's political ascendancy became a negative for Sawicki.
Fish out of water
Merle Phillips kept voters in the 108th Legislative District happy for 30 years, and he'd probably still be winning elections to the state House of Representatives if he hadn't retired. Yet Phillips, though widely respected, finished last in the race. Why didn't Phillips' personal popularity extend to county office?
- Phillips' age hurt him. Voters were concerned that Phillips might not be able to maintain the energy level necessary to function effectively as a county commissioner.
- For the first time in his career, Phillips encountered problems within the Republican Party. His decision to run this year even though he first promised to serve the balance of Kurt Masser's term hurt him in some quarters. Some Republicans didn't like the close friendship that developed between Phillips and Clausi.
- As Phillips himself pointed out, he never did well in political races where he ran in the coal region. His vote totals in the 107th Legislative District were abysmal. He actually finished second, behind Shoch, in the 108th District.
Aside from these significant problems, two additional factors proved fatal to the re-election bids of Sawicki and Phillips - Bridy's candidacy and the unwillingness of Democratic and Republican candidates to merge their respective campaigns.