Elections are like baseball games. People have to actually vote and the players have to get on base and then reach home plate before any announcement can be made on who the winners are.
Those who predict the outcome of elections and athletic events may be extremely knowledgeable, and indeed they may be basing their predictions on reliable data. But unless they've come back from the future, they can't really say with any certainty precisely what is going to happen.
Baseball teams can and do surprise us, and so do candidates every now and then. And even if an election happens to turn out just as people predict it will, it's comforting to reflect on the often-forgotten fact that the winners are chosen by the voters, not by conventional wisdom.
With that in mind, please accept the veracity of this pre-primary proclamation: Each of the 11 candidates for Northumberland County commissioner has as good a chance as any to be nominated on Tuesday.
The dictum that "anything is possible" certainly applies to the seven-candidate race for two Republican nominations where candidates could cancel each other out in some geographical areas. And there's no way to predict what effect, if any, the filing of a federal lawsuit against Democratic Commissioner Vinny Clausi by former chief clerk Kymberley Best will have on the primary results. The fallout could spill over into the Republican primary, too, since Commissioner Merle Phillips is also a defendant in the lawsuit because he went along with Best's firing.
Let's start with three assumptions:
- Voter turnout on Tuesday will be modest at best.
- Turnout will be better in the 107th Legislative District (Shamokin-Mount Carmel area) than in the 108th (Milton-Sunbury-Herndon) - roughly 45 percent in the 107th and 35 percent in the 108th.
With that in mind, here's a road map - strictly hypothetical, of course - for how any of the candidates could wind up in the winner's circle:
Democrats
Vinny Clausi - The lawsuit, though expected, came at the worst possible time for Clausi, five days before the election. There is nothing he can do now to change public opinion, and his best strategy is to say as little as possible between now and Tuesday. His "fighting for the taxpayers" rhetoric has resonated with many Democrats who are still embarrassed by the failures of the Cwalina-Lewis administration, and this reputation as a "fighter for the people" remains Clausi's ace in the hole.
Frank Sawicki - The heavy Democratic registration in Mount Carmel Borough and Mount Carmel Township is an advantage for Sawicki in a year of likely "single-voting" in the Democratic commissioner primary. If the turnout approaches 50 percent there and if his hometown stays loyal, Sawicki could emerge with 2,500 primary votes in the Mount Carmel area, a strong base indeed. The Clausi lawsuit could also boost Sawicki's appeal in other areas of the county.
Myron Turlis - The continuing controversies involving Clausi plus Sawicki's embarrassing misdirected phone message about the proposed Sunbury Elks purchase make Turlis the "number one" alternative for Democrats who are fed up with one or both of the majority commissioners. Keep in mind that Kulpmont generally boasts one of the highest voter turnouts, and in last year's legislative primary, Kulpmont Democrats were extremely loyal to their mayor.
Dodie Lovett - If Democrats are in an anti-incumbent mood, Lovett could be another natural beneficiary. She stands to benefit if there happens to be a surge of Democratic voters who are fed up with the status quo. Although time has run out for mounting a more highly visible campaign, a last-minute telephone blitz of registered Democratic voters and key Democrats in each precinct would be a realistic late-campaign strategy.
Republicans
Thomas Aber - Aber, of Milton, is the only candidate from the county's "northern tier," and no one can remember the last time that area produced a county commissioner. Aber's goal should be to get 75 to 80 percent of the vote in communities located within the Milton Area and Warrior Run school districts. If Aber succeeds in doing that, the relationships he has built through his former position with the county housing authority and his long career as a sports official can provide enough additional votes to make him one of the top two GOP vote-getters.
Terry Curran - There are only 113 Republicans in Snydertown, but getting the lion's share of them is vital to Curran's chances. He has been smart in mentioning his coal region connections, which could put him in contention in Shamokin, Coal Township, the Camerons and Zerbe and Shamokin townships. If he does well here and holds his own in the Sunbury area, Curran could have reason to celebrate on election night.
Charles Horvath - Horvath comes into the race with considerable geographical advantages. He is the only GOP candidate from the Rush Township-Riverside area, he has strong ties to Ralpho Township and is well known in southern Northumberland County because he taught at Line Mountain High School. His interest in the Tea Party movement should increase his appeal to a segment of the Republican Party that always votes in elections.
Merle Phillips - Phillips entered the race as the best known Republican candidate. If he gets 50 percent of the GOP vote Tuesday in the 108th district (where he has always been popular) and is able to muster one-third of the vote in the 107th (where he had a disappointing showing in countywide races in the 1970s), he will be one of the Republican nominees.
Samuel Schiccatano - Schiccatano is the only Republican on the ballot from the 107th Legislative District, and coal region voters have traditionally stuck with hometown candidates, all things being equal. Schiccatano has to finish strong in the Shamokin Area School District, stay close in the Mount Carmel area, and emerge in the top three in the Shikellamy and Line Mountain districts.
Rick Shoch - Shoch's co-chairmen are from opposite ends of the county, an expression of his intent to actively campaign in all areas. Shoch's area of primary strength is the Sunbury-Northumberland area, so he needs to do well there and finish among the top three candidates in all other areas.
Larry Wary - Wary, president of Snydertown Borough Council, is well known throughout the Sunbury area, and beyond, because of his involvement in Shikellamy youth football. He needs a strong showing in the Shikellamy School District and outlying areas such as Rush and Ralpho townships while finishing within the top four in the coal region and the Line Mountain School District.
The candidates with the best campaign playbooks will be the ones who skip on down the Road to Victory Tuesday night.