Motorists who faced the new year with the highest-ever fuel prices during the holiday season may need to brace for another trip to $4-a-gallon gasoline territory this year.
"There is a good chance we will get up to $4 a gallon and it doesn't have a lot to do with gas, but it has everything to do with crude oil prices and the impact of uncertainty in the Middle East," said Andrew Reed, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Boston-area research and consulting firm.
Average gas prices in the region have increased 24 cents per gallon over the last month to $3.52, according to AAA.
Prices are up 7.3 percent over the last month and 11 percent over the last year, according to the motor club.
Regional gas prices hit an all-time high of $4.06 in July 2008, according to AAA.
A revolution in Libya, a major oil producer in North Africa, and uprisings in other Arabic nations in 2011 created market uncertainty, producing a ripple effect on gas prices, said Hamza Khan, an analyst at the Schork Report, a Montgomery County newsletter that tracks energy markets.
"The Middle Eastern turmoil is playing a heavy factor in this," Khan said. "In the summer driving season, $4 gas is definitely feasible."
Increasing tension between the United States and Iran, another major oil producer, add to upward pressure on gas prices, Reed said.
"The Arab spring isn't over and now we've got the confrontation with Iran that is really pushing up the uncertainty," he said.
Strong international demand for gas has propelled higher recent U.S. gas exports, Khan said. American companies are exporting an average of 2.8 million barrels of fuel products daily, up from the 1.3 million daily average from 2006 to 2011, he said.
"Our export products are at the highest level ever seen," he said.
Nevertheless, Americans spend only about 2.8 cents of each dollar of disposable income on gas, down from 4 cents in 2006, Khan said.
"We're being pressed," he said. "We are not being squeezed."