Absent a last-minute scientific poll or a master's degree in clairvoyance, it's impossible to say with certainty which three of the five candidates will earn voter validation Tuesday.
People who understand and study county politics, know the players and have more than a passing acquaintance with campaigning can always offer intelligent predictions (or educated guesses), but in the end, it's voters' prerogative to confound conventional wisdom.
The campaign for Northumberland County commissioner has been one heck of a story.
Up to now, the story, complete with characters that are not quite out of central casting, dialogue that has ranged from colorful to banal with an occasional plot twist, has been largely driven, if not actually written, by the candidates themselves.
The story line is complicated:
- Three commissioners are elected, but each voter picks no more than two.
- Neither the Democratic nominees, Frank Sawicki and Vinny Clausi, nor the Republicans, Merle Phillips and Rick Shoch, have merged their campaigns. That means voters with strong loyalties to only one of the candidates may be more likely to "single-vote" their favorites.
- Northumberland County is a classic "swing" county, dominated politically by neither Democrats nor Republicans. Since party organizations are weak and patronage is essentially dead, party loyalties are not as strong anymore, especially among younger voters.
- Steve Bridy, an independent, is "running to win." He could well amass the most impressive vote total ever by an independent commissioner candidate in Northumberland County. Even if he doesn't succeed,
Bridy's candidacy will siphon votes and could possibly even deal a fatal blow to one of the other candidates.
- Weather will be favorable, boding well for a respectable voter turnout, perhaps 40 to 50 percent of the registered voters.
Assuming that all five candidates have a realistic (though obviously not an equal) chance to be elected, the campaign has 10 possible endings:
Ending Number One
Status Quo is Maintained - Incumbents Clausi, Sawicki and Phillips are all re-elected as voters stay inside their comfort zones and stick with the "known." Under this scenario, Clausi is the top vote-getter, Phillips carries the Sunbury-Milton area and the Line Mountain School District by a wide margin and Bridy's candidacy hurts Shoch more than Sawicki.
Ending Number Two
Goodbye, Frank - Clausi and Phillips, the perceived "strong" ends of their respective party tickets, sail to victory, thanks to their loyal base of supporters. Shoch, coming in third, is also a winner, because Bridy takes votes from Sawicki, and Republicans, showing more unity than Democrats, want to see a GOP majority, at least on paper.
Ending Number Three
Merle Tanks in Coal Region - Clausi, Shoch and Sawicki win, probably in that order. Phillips has a respectable showing in the area he once represented at the state House, but, as was the case in past countywide showings, has disappointing results in the Shamokin-Mount Carmel area.
Ending Number Four
Bridy's the Real Deal - It's Clausi, Phillips and Bridy - yes, Bridy! All the people who said they were voting for him actually do, and Bridy makes electoral history. He supplants Shoch as the alternative to Sawicki. Clausi and Phillips quickly form a working majority, and over the next four years, Bridy strives to become the "new Vinny" in an effort to eliminate "corruption" and confound the "politicians."
Ending Number Five
Elephants' Graveyard - Clausi, Sawicki, Bridy. Voters see Clausi as the taxpayers' friend, like Bridy's independence and admire Sawicki's business-like approach. Controller Tony Phillips, elected without opposition, emerges as the leading Republican voice in county government.
Ending Number Six
Every Man for Himself - Voters reason that Phillips is too old and Sawicki has been there too long. The anti-politicians, Clausi and Bridy, win, and so does Shoch, who benefits from not being an incumbent. Each of the three victors will be watching each other carefully over the next four years.
Ending Number Seven
The Age of Tranquility - Phillips, Shoch, Sawicki. Voters are tired of the dysfunctional Democratic majority, Bridy's candidacy has peaked too soon, and Vinny's strength is greatly exaggerated.
Ending Number eight
Fresh Faces Triumphant - Shoch, Bridy, Sawicki. Voters, in an anti-incumbent mood, opt for "something new." So Phillips, who's been around longer than anyone else, gets the boot. In what's viewed as a miracle of Trumanesque proportions, the "single-vote" Sawicki voters outnumber the "single-vote" Clausi folks.
Ending Number Nine
Experience Counts - Sawicki, with eight years under his belt, and Phillips, with his three decades in Harrisburg, get the nod. The voters also tap the new guy, Bridy, to "keep the other two honest." The board has a hard time choosing between Sawicki and Phillips for the chairmanship, so one of these incumbent gents forges an alliance with Bridy, thereby making him the first registered independent to be chairman of a board of commissioners in Pennsylvania.
Ending Number Ten
Pin the Tail on the Who? - Phillips, Shoch and Bridy hand the Democratic Party its worst county defeat in history. No one saw it coming. Who could have predicted that Clausi and Sawicki single-voters would cancel each other out? And why didn't anyone realize that the hotly contested Shikellamy School Board race would dramatically increase voter turnout in a mostly Republican area?
Ten possibilities, but in the end, the electorate, in its collective wisdom, will write the actual ending. Pundits chatter, voters matter. Campaigns collide, the people decide.